CHINA TO BE WORLD'S TOP MANUFACTURER OF GREEN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY
By Jim Efstathiou Jr.
Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's biggest greenhouse- gas emitter, is poised to lead world production of solar cells, wind power turbines and low-carbon energy technology. China is already the world's largest renewable-energy producer as measured by installed generating capacity, according to a report today from the Climate Group, a coalition of companies and governments that support solutions to global warming. The country is also the world's top manufacturer of solar cells and will be the leading exporter of wind turbines by 2009. China's position as a renewable-energy consumer and manufacturer runs counter to its ranking as one of the world's biggest polluters and the country's rapid expansion of coal-fired power generation. About 75 percent of China's electricity comes from coal, said Changhua Wu, China director for the Climate Group, who is based in Beijing.

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“Today, China is the second largest consumer of oil, just after the United States. But with one of the highest rates of growth on the planet, its energy needs are increasing seven times faster, while its reserves are depleting. China is unable to produce the oil it needs today. It has to import half of it. In the next three years this number will increase to two-thirds, if not its whole economy will collapse. Lacking its own source of oil, China is dependent on the rest of the world. Hence it’s imperative to find new countries to provide it and secure these supplies in an increasingly unstable world. In this crusade for black gold, China is already in direct conflict with the current greatest consumer of the world’s oil: the United States.

BATTLE FOR OIL investigates the new world geopolitics that is emerging around the needs of both the world’s leading superpower and the world’s fastest growing economy to secure future supplies of oil.

Chinese oil companies are signing deals in countries like Venezuela, Iran, Sudan, Chad and Angola. In exchange, China has given its support to these countries, either building infrastructure or using its influence to support them at the United Nations. Now, U.S. companies are finding that doing business in some oil producing markets is rapidly changing.” (text taken from here)

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The specter of serious power shortages across China this summer looms larger as more provinces are reporting problems. According to BP’s Statistical Review China is a very inefficient user of energy. Couple this with drought-induced shortages of hydro-power, the recent earthquake, various kinds of price caps on power and coal, and efforts to improve China’s abysmal coal mine safety record, and one has the perfect recipe for power shortages in a economy that is growing at 10 percent a year.

Beijing obviously will pull out all stops to ensure that shortages do not mar the August Olympics, even at the cost of slowing economic growth. In June Chinese aluminum exports jumped 43 percent. Chinese aluminum smelters are estimated to consume as much power as 100 million people. Already power for the aluminum industry has been cut by 10 percent.

The real issue is what will happen after the Olympics. During the major power shortage four years ago, China stepped up oil imports to keep many enterprises functioning with backup power generators. Given the much tighter coal and oil market that exists in 2008, any increase in imports likely would result in still higher world prices.

China’s economy, however, may be in more trouble than Beijing is letting on with rosy forecasts of at least a 10 percent increase in GDP during 2008. While China’s exports are still growing prodigiously – 17.6 percent year on year in June – this was down from 28.1 percent in May. Outside observers are beginning to question whether or not China’s years of unprecedented growth are coming to a close. The Chinese economic miracle has been built on cheap energy, which permitted inefficient plants coupled with cheap labor, a cheap Yuan, and cheap transportation to capture much of the world’s manufacturing.

Beijing maintains that its domestic market is so large that it can weather any economic downturn in its OECD customers. All these assumptions, including the course of Chinese oil imports, may well be tested before the year is out.

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A recent boom in Chinese wind power development has surpassed the government's original target and forced policymakers to set a new goal that might still be too modest.

In 2007, cumulative wind installations in China exceeded 5 gigawatts (GW), the goal originally set for 2010 by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China's top economic planner. The Commission had set the target in its 2006 mid- and long-term development plan for renewable energy. The plan's target for 2020 was 30 GW, a level that is now projected to be reached by 2012, eight years ahead of schedule.

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Although the Sichuan earthquake seems unlikely to set back China’s economic growth by very much, the disaster may have a noticeable impact on China’s energy supply and imports of coal and oil. The area subjected to the quake produces about 22 percent of China’s natural gas supplies and contains many coal mines and hydro-electric dams which generated about 62 percent of the province’s total electricity production. Many of the 396 power stations on the river system and their dams were damaged. Several major reservoirs are being drained to prevent their dams from failing. Beijing ordered coal mines, oil and gas wells, and chemical plants affected by the quake to shut down until the situation could be assessed. Twenty-two coal mines in Sichuan, Chongqing and Gansu provinces were affected by the quake.
Loss of significant amounts of natural gas, coal, and electricity production for an indefinite period suggests that China will have to step up imports of coal and oil products. Already some 700,000 barrels of emergency fuel supplies have been dispatched to the area.
Prior to the earthquake, China’s crude and oil products imports were already increasing rapidly. Crude imports in the first 4 months of 2008 were up 9.8 percent over 2007 to support an increase in industrial production of 15.7 percent in April. Diesel imports in April rose to 520,000 tons from 30,000 tons a year earlier and 490,000 tons in March. Traders say that China is planning to import still more oil in May and June to prepare for the Olympics and to support recovery from the earthquake. No let-up to Chinese demand for oil is yet in sight, suggesting that world prices will continue to move higher during the summer.

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